About that Tribune Poll, Don Rose
Don Rose is an independent political consultant who specializes in progressive candidates. He writes a weekly online column for the Chicago Daily Observer (CDOBS.com) and has published widely, including in The Nation.
A friend and colleague, David Schaffer, took a look at the Chicago Tribune poll published on Tuesday that showed Chuy Garcia lagging behind Rahm Emanuel. Something about it didn’t smell right.
While the Chuy campaign is organizing an unprecedented field operation for election day, is the Tribune poll trying to discourage voters so that they stay home?
Below, you can read David’s keen insights which comport with several experiences I’ve had with outlier polls from the Tribune, and elsewhere, during my 50 years of working on political campaigns. The Tribune poll also does not comport with other recent polling we have seen.
In one or two earlier campaigns, I used the same pollster that the Tribune was using—not their current firm—and dropped them because they simply were not accurate, much to my dismay.
In the victorious Jane Byrne and Harold Washington independent mayoral races that I worked on, nether Byrne nor Washington ever had a public poll that showed them winning.
For that matter, during Barack Obama’s first race for the US Senate, he was in third place in the polls right up until election day, when he won with 52 percent of the vote.
And don’t forget the screaming 1948 Chicago Tribune headline, Dewey Defeats Truman!
Below are David’s thoughts:
“Tribune polling has long been deeply flawed. In the 1996 State’s Attorney race pitting Democrat Richard Devine against Republican Jack O’Malley, a supposedly “unbeatable” two-term incumbent, Devine had a 38 point deficit in the poll (with a margin of error of five points), yet ended up winning by seven points. That’s a 45% switch among the electorate in just three weeks!
“I worked on that campaign. We didn’t switch half the voters in 3000 county-wide precincts in three weeks. It was just that the Tribune Poll was designed to get O’Malley re-elected, and we were able to prevent it from happening.
“In John Stroger’s race in 1994 it was very similar. The Tribune poll had Pucinski, whom they had endorsed, with a 30 point lead. Stroger ended up winning by 20 points. Did 50% of the voters switch from Pucinski to Stroger at the last minute? Highly unlikely.
“In 2010, I worked closely with Pat Quinn in the primary against Hynes, who was endorsed by the Tribune, and in the general election against Brady, also endorsed by the Tribune. In the race against Brady, Quinn polled 40 points behind, yet he was elected. Does anyone believe that 40% of voters, statewide, changed their minds? I mean, c’mon.
“The pattern is clear, the Tribune picks a candidate, runs countless editorials attacking their candidate’s opponent, and delivers a fake poll predicting victory.”
This Tribune poll was intended to dishearten our supporters and suggest that they should stay home on Election Day. That’s why it’s even more important for us to put every ounce of energy we have into getting our voters to the polls.
Can you give Chuy’s campaign a boost? Just $25 helps pay predictive dialer costs for 100 calls from our volunteers to our voters.
Thank you for your steadfast support,
Don Rose
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